An Analysis of the Coming Civil War: Who Will Win and Why?


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Jade Helm 15 (JH 15) has awakened the American consciousness like few other events in recent history. I have been getting calls from Louisiana, to Utah, to Texas, to California, to New York, and from Colorado mainstream radio stations (e.g. FOX) who wanted to interview me about the martial law and extraction of dissidents operations associated with JH 15. Most of the mainstream talk show hosts are in shock over what they are discovering. Some of the hosts and their listeners want to know if I thought this turn of events is going to deteriorate into a civil war.

My answer to the civil war question has always been “I do not know” and I am certainly not advocating for it. However, with this much attention being paid to the possibility, I decided to conduct my own research into the possibility in which I sought to answer three questions:

1. Will America attempt to defeat the banker-led occupation forces which have hijacked our government?

2. What kind of civil war would it be?

3. What are the “people’s” chances of winning a civil war?

Here are the results of my investigation.

Four Types of Conflict

How can one be certain that the coming conflict will be a guerrilla war? A quick analysis of the options will quickly reveal which direction a civil war would follow.

Military strategists identify four levels of conflict; (1) nuclear war is the trump card of all conflicts; 2) conventional warfare; (3) guerrilla warfare; and, (4) terrorism.

Terrorism is the least preferred option by any insurgent group. With terrorism, there is absolutely no hope of final victory because territory is never occupied. For that reason, nobody aspires to engage in terrorism if they have a viable alternative and the American people do have a choice given how well armed we are. In a case in point, please note how the terrorist group, ISIS, has attempted to go mainstream by fighting conventional military battles in Iraq. Terrorism is the least preferred option and it also runs contrary to traditional American psychology.

dhs-targetsMany have hinted, including some former high ranking military types, at the fact that there has been discussion of a military coup. In the absence of such an event, guerrilla war would be the next viable option.

While some of the 260+ command level officers fired by Obama are privately informing many of us in the media about the current state of affairs with regard to an armed resistance to the take over of America, the details are sketchy. For obvious reasons, they are not on the record.  Other than self-preservation, the major reason why these former military commanders are not on the record is because some of them might be involved in planning a guerrilla war against the occupation forces commanded by this administration under the auspices of DHS.

One of my sources states that the coming civil war will be a guerrilla war and it will be prolonged. Another former General has told me that the American people do not have the stomach for guerrilla war and that the majority of our people will lay down like sheep and be slaughtered. What do you think? Can Americans Win a Guerrilla War Against the Banker Occupation Forces?

Why the Coming Civil War Must Be a Guerrilla War

We have an approximate total of 1.4 million active personnel in the US military. The United States has over 200,000 troops stationed in 144 countries. These 200,000 men and women will not likely be a factor in the coming conflict and will prove to be in grave danger in the coming conflict.

I constantly have former military write to my website and proclaim their allegiance to the Constitution and pledge to destroy all enemies both foreign and domestic. I do not doubt their resolve or courage, however, there are not 30 million combat ready veterans, with the technological means and military organizational skills who would be ready to fight as they frequently claim. There are only 1.8 million veterans who are under the age of 35, which would be the prime fighting age for any resistance force. This means that in the best case scenario, that any resistance that the occupation forces could muster would consist of about 2.5 million men who have combat training in both our active duty personnel and our veterans. The mere size of the army that the Chinese could muster, in addition to the DHS, and the Russians, would dwarf any force that the American people could place on the battlefield.

The only choice that this country would have to resist the coming occupation and genocidal purge would be to make the war a guerrilla war.

The Sides Are Drawn

The coming civil war will consist of the present administration, the DHS, the bulk of the domestic U.S. military, the Chinese, and the Russians, all under the UN flag, versus small part of the American military and about 10% of the American people. On the surface, this is not a fair fight!

Could a guerrilla war succeed? Is America equipped to fight a guerrilla war?

Can a Guerrilla War Succeed?

Guerrilla warfare, for most of human history, is not new. Tribal war, which traditionally pits one guerrilla force against another, is the oldest form of warfare. The new “conventional” form of warfare, which pits guerrillas against “conventional” forces, is more recent as it arose in Mesopotamia 5,000 years ago.

The good news for future American freedom fighters is that guerrilla warfare has been getting more successful since 1945, but unfortunately guerrilla fighters still lose most of the time. An analysis of past conflicts featuring guerrilla war, reveals that only 25% of guerrilla forces, out of 443 such conflicts since 1775, were successful. The government prevailed almost 64% of the time with the remainder of the conflicts ended in a stalemate. Conversely, since the end of WWII, the percentage of success for guerrilla forces has indeed gone up to 39.6%. Yet government forces have continued to prevail 51% of the time.

When the American people engage in a guerrilla war in the upcoming years, the American people have less than a 40% chance of success.

Guerrilla wars are rarely short and, as a result, do not favor the American culture and psychological makeup because of our collective psyche of instant gratification. When Americans flip the switch on the wall, we expect the light to come on. Will Americans set aside their entitlements as well as their entrenched soft lifestyle and rise to the occasion? The answer to that question, is that it does not matter. America is in the early stages of a civil war, whether it realizes it or not.

Vo Nugyen Giap

Vo Nugyen Giap

General Giap the architect of the successful Viet Cong resistance strategy once stated that, “The war of liberation of the Vietnamese people proves that, in the face of an enemy as powerful as he is cruel, victory is possible only by uniting the whole people within the bosom of a firm and wide national united front based on the worker-peasant alliance.”(The Military Art of People’s War, p. 97-98). How does one achieve such an alliance?

“Using fear is the key to motivating the people to fight”.                            

-General Giap

Giap tells us that fear of the oppressor is a strong ally.  Those that are awake need to convey the threat against us by emphasizing the fear. The globalists are already trying to head this off. Why do you think they invented the phrase “fear monger” in order to discredit those who are attempting to sound the alarm before it is too late?

fema box carsTell your neighbors about DHS and their 2.2 billion rounds of ammunition and their 2700 armored personnel carriers. Ask your neighbor who is DHS preparing to fight? Speak to neighbors about the Civilian Inmate Labor Program. Let people know they can be snatched off the street without due process under the NDAA. Print out a copy of Executive Order 13603 and read it to them. Talk to your friends about the detention camps and the Wackenhut buses that will take you there along with the trains containing shackles. Ask your neighbors how we can pay off $238 trillion dollars in unfunded mandates or bail-out the bankers one quadrillion derivatives debt?  Make your friends see that a currency collapse is imminent. Becoming a fact-based “fear monger” is the surest way to begin to tip the numbers in your favor.

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Conclusion

We now know that the American people have a 40% of winning a civil war. What has to happen in order for these odds to increase? The answer to this question will be covered in the next article and the answers to this question will surprise you!

Yesterday, Steve Quayle told Alex Jones’ audience that Jade Helm 15 is going live and the executions associated the carrying out of the sentences of the Red List will be going live along with Jade Helm 15. You might want to get started today as time is becoming very short.

Dave Hodges is the Editor and Host of The Common Sense Show.

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